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【Mike Nahan Column】The Year Of The Tiger

时间:2010-02-26 17:08:21来源: 作者: 点击:
Mike Nahan Column. Updated fortnightly

While I do not normally give much credence to astrology, I do believe we  are set for a real Year of the Tiger.  A year of excitement, but one in which we should think before we leap.
On the political side, this will be a year of elections. The State elections will be held in South Australia and Tasmania next month and the Australian Government will go to the polls later in the year.
A month ago, Labor was long odds to win by a large margin federally. Now, if the polls are to be believed, the Coalition under Tony Abbott is in-with-a-shot. This will not be the usually bland campaign with little real differences between the parties. The Liberal’s are staking out different approaches in many areas. Risky - but exciting.
Given the challenges facing the next Federal Government, most importantly getting the nation’s finances back in the black after the wild spending of the last few years, the choice is vital.
The economy, particularly in Western Australia, is also in for an exciting, decisive year. The Chinese economy is still going gang busters, pulling WA along in its wake. If the Chinese do well, we will do well. The challenge lies in the Chinese Government ensuring that its economy does not get too hot and overheat.
After 6 per cent annual growth last year, the Chinese economy grew at an annual rate of nearly 11 per cent in the December quarter, which is not sustainable. The Government has pulled back hard on the policy levers recently to slow its tiger economy, so far with some success. But expect the wild ride to continue through the year.
For investors, 2010 will be exciting year but one where caution and care will pay dividends. Stock markets around the world recovered well over the last 12 months, albeit from recessionary lows. The next year is expected to be more variable with some stock and markets up and some down.
To do well in 2010, one will have to choose well and in an environment with many unpredictable influences. While the Chinese and Australian economies continue to grow at pace, the rest of the world is slow and patchy. While local consumers have been spending well to date, the withdrawal of the Federal Government’s fiscal stimulus will affect many firms. Stocks with low debt, good management and tie in to China will do best.
Have fun and Gong Xi Fa Cai.
 

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