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【Mike Nahan Column】The Continued Growth of South East Asia

时间:2010-01-22 13:18:35来源: 作者: 点击:
While China has come to dominate the minds of business around the world, all routes to riches do not lead to China.
South East Asia – Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam &ndas

While China has come to dominate the minds of business around the world, all routes to riches do not lead to China.
South East Asia – Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam – continue to prosper and provide important markets for Australian trade and business.
 The South East Asian (SEA) countries have come through the global financial crisis remarkably well. Despite being very export oriented with high reliance on US trade, they have been able to weather the near collapse of US markets. They have been impacted, but it is nowhere near as great as expected.
One reason for their ability to avoid the worst impacts of the GFC is that they came into it in very good fiscal shape. Following the Asian crisis of the 1990s, all SEA countries repaired their balance sheets by building-up large foreign exchange reserves, maintaining budget surpluses and avoiding high levels of international debt.
Their government’s therefore had the fiscal capacity to employ measures to counter the GFC such as through tax incentives and additional capital works and to do so quickly and with limited impact of future tax levels.
In contrast, most wealthy countries have been forced to increase borrowings massively. This means large tax increases in the future and has eroded the impact of the stimulus.
Moreover, most wealthy nations have struggled to get additional capital works up and running in time to have an impact. In contrast, Asian governments have been able to get the capital stimulus to the market quickly.
Another reason for SEA’s recent relatively good economic outcome is the fact that it is now a large and quite integrated market. Together they have more people than the US; a large and growing middle class and large and growing demand for infrastructure, including housing, roads, ports, urban facilities and power.
Unlike the wealthy world they are still developing. Moreover, over the last few decades, they have increasingly opened their market to each other making the area a large and vibrant integrated market place. This has decreased their reliance on and susceptibility to problems in the West.
Sure the region has been adversely impacted by the GFC and has it has challenges, most pointedly from a super competitive China. But it is doing far better than many expected and will remain a vibrant place of opportunity.
 

东南亚的持续发展
虽然中国开始主导世界经济思维,中国却不是唯一的致富之路。
东南亚 - 包括印尼、新加坡、马来西亚、泰国以及越南,仍在不断富强,他们也为澳洲的贸易及生意提供了很重要的市场。
东南亚国家安然度过了全球金融危机。他们的贸易是以出口为主,因而很依赖和美国之间的贸易。虽然美国市场几近崩溃,但是他们还是坚持挺过来了。他们受到了冲击,但是后果没有想象的那么糟。
使得他们避免受到金融危机最严重冲击的一个原因,是这些国家在危机来临时已经有了结实的经济结构。在1990年亚洲金融危机之后,所有东南亚国家以大幅度增加外汇储量、维持预算盈余、及避免高风险国际债务等措施,来修复他们的资产负债表。
正因如此,他们的政府方有足够的经济实力来采取措施应对金融危机,例如通过减税刺激及额外的基本建设工程等手段,而且他们的行动迅速有效,对未来的税率也没有多大影响。
相反地,大多数富有国家则不得不大量增加他们的借贷。这意味着未来税率将提升,并侵蚀了经济刺激的效力。
另外,很多发达国家很难启动额外的建设项目,因此不能应时的起到作用。相反的,亚洲各国政府则能够将经济刺激迅速地运用到市场上。
东南亚国家近来有着相对不错的经济成果的另一原因,是他们已经形成了一个大规模且相当综合性的市场。他们的人口总和比美国的多,有着大数量且在不断增长中的中产阶级,以及对基础设施包括房屋、道路、港口、城市设施及电力等方面大量的需求,
不像发达国家,这些东南亚国家还在不断发展。而且在过去的几十年,他们不断地彼此开放市场,使得整个东南亚一带形成了一个大型且具有活力的综合性市场。这样使得他们渐渐脱离依附于西方国家、不再会因西方国家出了问题就遭受池鱼之殃。
当然,东南亚国家还是受到了金融危机的影响,他们也有他们的挑战,尤其是来自中国的超级强力竞争。但是,他们比预期的做得更好。这个地区,依然是一个充满了无限机遇的地方。

 

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